Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Pakistan's Case of Diplomacy and Glacier Conks

Pakistan’s Case of Diplomacy and Glacier Conks
By Brig (Retd) Dr. Muhammad Aslam Khan Niazi,
Pakistan.

Roedad Khan, quoting him as a metaphor for any Pakistani, has burnt himself out, at least proverbially. His passion remains stuck with stark disappointments as he yearns to see our ‘Quaid’s’(founding father) dreams as achieved. Several icons from our civil society including journalists would soon be hunch-backs under the heap of scandals they expose about massive corruption, nepotism and state conspiracies, to the verge of proving the gluttons committing acts of treason. However, our federal top guns remain soaked in their unholy hobbies on the trajectory of their ill founded domains. Instead of fishing for clues for recovery from public opinion through the media, their genius is consumed by the devices to go more lethal and ambitious in wicked pursuits. In the mean time, our judiciary has been inundated with the burden of their responsibility to often act unilaterally but brilliantly when state’s institutions’ functional credibility is not characterized by their service to the people but by self-glorifying their misdeeds. Where such comparison is within the ‘corrupts’ in competition, the magnitude and tainted colossus of these monsters become immeasurable. It would be absolutely fair to exclude Army from this ominous bracket.

Federation functionaries have the tongue in their cheeks to clamor that democracy is threatened in Pakistan. Wikileaks has thoroughly exposed them as if they are hanging by a cliff and seeking rescue from the external collaborators. The dramatic irony in the whole issue is that the ‘cliff’ is their own making to provoke sympathies among our allies of war on terror. Pakistani coalition government, thoroughly vulnerable to blackmail by its own constituent allies, has devised a nefarious strategy to gobble up themselves and extend absolute impunity to their accomplices. They, amidst the volleys of mutual barbs, cling to each other because they are desperately in the need of a continuing empire to mop up their sins.

Once this humbug goes on, our foreign policy brains have been lax wittingly and unobtrusively from the public eyes on several crucial issues of international relations, which crystallize through the conduct of diplomacy, ‘as a policy instrument possibly in association with other instruments such as economic or military force to enable an international actor to achieve its objectives’ (Baylis & Smith). Thanks to globalization, we are not only an international actor but the geo-strategic location endows us with tremendous significance. If the diplomacy wizards do recognize our inherent vitality which is doubtful, one thing is sure that their recognition has not been supplemented with adequate exterior maneuvers. Our stance is mercurial and not commensurate to the challenges. We tend to buckle under the weight of national and international issues to keep ourselves well aligned to the wishes of external factors which push us to the pitfall of erroneous decisions when our indigenous failings are in no dearth.

Our government attempts to project its weight by ridiculing other pillar(s) of state despite knowing that our deeds or misdeeds are picked up by international community faster than we do, being cast in a crystal. When Army asserted that we would defend our borders employing all means available, certainly it was aimed at India with whom there have been three wars since independence in 1947. However it was not meant to negate the spirit of diplomacy and freedom of dialogues option with our eastern rival. Rather it meant reinforcing the dialogue diplomacy with military support in tandem to lend our negotiations a position of advantage. None else than our ruling party spokesperson spew out a firm denial that these were not the government views, at colossal detriment to the conduct of successful diplomacy.

Mr. Asif Ali Zardari calling Kashmiri freedom fighters as terrorists from as responsible a platform as that of ‘President’ and offering withdrawal from Siachin Glacier in 2008 and 2010 respectively, made our adversary’s stance more stubborn. Did he know the extent of damage he inflict to our foreign policy, strategic implications for India and advantages that accrue to Pakistan when we keep the bull locked by the horns in Siachin with perhaps much lesser comparative, though considerable, cost in men and material? His statements were not only antithesis to the basics of the diplomacy dynamics but also of our valiant men’s and officers’ sacrifices, literally crouching like Dr. Iqbal’s (Poet of the East) legendary ‘shaheens’ (eagles), gasping for each breath, yet resolutely perched on the rocks above 20,000 feet. On the contrary, India has not budged an inch from its reticence beyond fascinating colloquialism occasionally over Kashmir as well as Sir Creek. Instead it has launched a well orchestrated effort to encircle and isolate Pakistan from Afghanistan, the West, Japan, Russia, China, and Middle East. Recognition of India’s role in Afghanistan by U.S., European Union and Russia is a direct set back to the conduct of our foreign policy. Already India is being accused of fomenting instability in Pakistan’s south-western province, Baluchistan and funding a segment of Taliban. Some dissident leaders’ trails by our intelligence agencies are reported to have confirmed this hypothesis. Thus when India claims it stakes for having a role in Afghanistan, it is crystal clear what she exactly means.

India played Mumbai card very shrewdly, depicting Pakistan backing and actively supporting the tragic episode once its voices even feeble, are heard loud and clear for an obvious advantage of its much trumpeted democratic platform versus Pakistan. Murder of 93000 Kashmiris so far has not been able to move the world conscience that seems to be pushed by commercialism more than philosophy of pursuing peace. For the major powers, India is a prolific trade partner and worth billions dollar arms market as well. On our side is a dark picture. Pakistan run by a dictator for nine long years from 1999-2008 has been ravaged beyond repairs. Wikileaks disclosure about Israeli leadership’s continuing concern for President Musharraf’s safety and well being explains the entire myth of his millions dollar bonanza; he is now reaping under the guise of ‘enlightening’ lectures in the West. During his rule, his meetings with Israeli top functionaries are no secrets. The only country declared off limits by Pakistani passport, unfortunately, is Israel. The printed warning it carries ‘this passport is valid for all the countries of the world except Israel’ had obligated him by implication to refrain from such honey-mooning but flouting the norms and ethics had been his favorite slushy slippery ground that he has yet to answer when cold hands of justice would reach him. Not only toppling but throwing a democratically elected Prime Minister, Mr. Mian Nawaz Sharif and the bonafide Chief of Army Staff, Gen Khwaja Zia-ud-Din into black dungeon are the major charges against him, among dozens of other allegations of heinous crimes, he is not likely to wade through clean. How one would have expected such a con man to have stood for national interests? Unfortunately the successor government is also incapable and bent upon adding insult to the injury. Amidst lurking disenchantment of the masses, Pakistan failed to cash upon the vital evidence emanating from Indian sources about setting ‘Samjhauta Express’ ablaze in 2007. The complicity of Indian government officials, in firebombing Pakistan bound train near Panipat (India), with the Hindu terrorists is undeniable. Charred bodies of sixty eight Pakistanis were pulled out and fifty two were injured, most of them critically.

Analysts in India also remembered the moments of the tragedy that preceded it by five years in 2002 at Godhra railway station in Gujarat (India). No evidence could prove that fire attack was preplanned by Muslims when fifty Hindus were killed. One thing is sure that the magnitude of revenge which the majority Hindus unleashed over Muslims next morning was unprecedented. They burnt them alive and killed about 2500 of them. The state’s machinery deliberately stood by, watching the human carnage till there were ashes and stench all around. Mysterious then and later also, the candidate of extremist Hindu party, BJP, which thrives politically on the heaps of hatred towards Muslims, had clean sweep in the coming election. Many observers believe that the train massacre was stage-managed to the logical conclusion, which was consummation of BJP victory. In India such treachery, when it comes to Muslims, is never surprising. Recent comments by a senior Indian Congress leader, DigVijay Singh, likening Indian RSS and BJP hatred for Muslims to that of Nazi’s against Jews, is a stark reality and stigma, BJP carries.

Pakistanis could hope with a sense of loss from our policy wizards that these tragic events could be brought up as an effective counter-lever to parry off Mumbai scathing and consequent dent to our image among the comity of nations. While Mumbai massacre rumbles every now and then, our diplomats perhaps are not even mindful of the butchery meted out to Muslims in India, including Kashmir. Such are the short memories on our side. Absence of flurry of publicized diplomacy offensives usually means all quiet on this front to suggest that our policy pundits are gripped by inertia or inert dreams. Compromises are not welcome because we would be led to demolishing our crucial geo-political pivots. On the other hand we are clear about the hypothesis that India needs peace more than us. It does not need a genius to guess but simple arithmetic that Indian stakes in peace are much more monumental than Pakistan. Yet the reality predominates the scene for both the neighbors that peace-making is the only way through. It should be driving both sides crazy that it has remained elusive for sixty three years until now. While talking to an eastern TV channel, Indian Prime Minister, Mr. Manmohan Singh talked of responding and readjusting to global trends towards multi-polarity and managing the regional environments in Asia in a manner which enhances peace, security and overall development of our societies. He asserted that it is incumbent on all countries of the region to build cooperative partnerships. It is a paradox that in real dynamics of international relations, he appears excluding India from ‘incumbent on all countries of the region’ clause about matters relevant to Pakistan.

India has persisted in achieving threatening posture. She has secured a base in Tajikistan and is doing thriving business in Kazakhstan in energy sector despite presence of a very tough and competitive rival, China. Ajay Patnaik rightly boasts, “Two landmarks signified India’s changing approach. In November 2003 India agreed to renovate and upgrade the Ayni air base in Tajikistan. In August 2005 Indian state-owned company ONGC combined with Mittal Industrial Group to form ONGC Mittal Energy Limited (OMEL) to acquire energy assets in Kazakhstan”. What laurels have we achieved despite our territorial contiguity with Central Asia? Dr. Azmat Hayat Khan, Vice Chancellor, University of Peshawar, is rightly bewildered to observe that in Central Asia, India is every where. While he does not deny their privilege to be there, he maintains, Pakistan is nowhere.

Potentials of the land mass, Pakistan, as a bridge to satiate Indian energy-thirsty but booming economy remain precious bargaining chips during negotiations with India. Transit trade relaxation from Afghanistan to India and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Gas Pipe Line agreement are some hasty if not ill-thought moves that have left us empty handed when we had an alternative to flaunt Gwadar outlet for the sake of diplomacy. With our hind view about the quality of Indian diplomacy that is consistent and vibrant, at some point in time, we would again be cornered by her as in Afghanistan, and now for Siachin Glacier where India has picked up ‘environments degradation’ card to force our forces pull-out on us. It also shows how India manipulates universal trends to its advantage. Indian burgeoning defense budget and attempts to ditch our economy by choking off rivers inflow prove its relentless pursuits to strike at our survival roots. On the contrary, our foreign office apathy of not launching diplomatic blitz for effective resolution of mother-of-all disputes (Kashmir) is intriguing. Our moral ascendancy has been rendered redundant at international level when poor and reluctant campaigning has resulted in our faltered stance, with emerging impression at times that we are about to ditch Kashmir issue. President Musharraf’s claim to justify Kargil misadventure that it brought Kashmir Issue to the world focus, could not have been more repulsive and loathsome. On the other hand India successfully invaded Junagadh, Goa, Hyderabad, Kashmir and clipped off our wing to the East in 1971 to become Bangla Desh. Through effective diplomacy it has not only managed to wipe off its sins of aggression but has become a standard bearer of the largest democracy in the world. Having licked off its claws after several territorial hunts, it now purrs, a stance more lethal to secure Energy Bridge to link with Central Asia in the absence of which it’s ardently perceived global role would remain a pipe-dream. Playing to Indian tunes, we are eager to oblige without ever exploring the ramifications that would accrue for Pakistan.

The bottom line of the debate is not that diplomacy doors be shut off but made more responsive with cutting edge. An edge that is not reactionary but preemptive, far sighted and to engage our adversary on forward foot. Before the two sides line up nuclear armaments for a devastating conflict in the wake of deep rooted mutual frenzy, there is a need to mobilize world opinion to avert another holocaust. UN silence on this issue, despite the existence of plebiscite-supporting resolutions in its archives, is certainly lamentable. It is also reality that diplomacy in 21st Century is far more complicated particularly when convergence of national interests of the major powers is a foregone conclusion in this region. Yet our foreign policy ‘gurus’ are perhaps not putting the diplomats stationed in our embassies abroad to the optimum utilization whose performance had been traditionally dismal, some exceptions notwithstanding. They may have been led to complacency and lavish lethargy by innate greed but the irony is that no specific goals are given to them to shoulder-push our national interests to fruition. At the same time our government has to recognize that diplomacy, though largely concentrates on international issues, draws succor from state’s internal environments. If the state remains laced with corruption, nepotism and horrible governance, diplomacy limps everywhere it tries to project itself being on fragile roots. Successive failures to plug the yawning gaps would subject us to agonizing arm-twisting by India in sync with other stake holders to squeeze more and yet more from our clattering skeleton As the word ‘Conk’ means a blow to the head, one would implore the rulers to save us from such deadly blows. Conversely ‘conk’ also means fungus growth on decaying wood. One would pray, Pakistan is not destined to such doom.

The writer is a defense analyst and member of WSN International Advisory Board with doctorate in International Relations, (makni49@hotmail.com)

(An abridged version of this opinion article appeared in The News International, 22 December 2010)

Friday, March 19, 2010

Pakistan in Cauldron of Internal Crises

Pakistan in Cauldron of Internal Crises

By BrigGen (Retd) Dr. Muhammad Aslam Khan Niazi, PhD

Though short history of Pakistan since independence in 1947 is riddled with crises, the horrendous storms that lurk now on the horizon of the fragile government create awe and shock among the civil society that so desperately and sincerely yearns for peace, tranquility, rule of law and justice. One would sound refuting the realities of geopolitics and statesmanship if one is enthused by a wishful phenomenon that crises never occurred to sovereign states. The tragedy for Pakistan had been that after the mysterious demise of Muhammad Ali Jinnah, our founding father of the country, the leadership at the helms of affairs could never measure up to the challenges it faced. Woefully the leaders were found sinking in the sloth of their petty self-greed and ambitions. Each came up with charming slogans to keep the country ‘first’ and above ‘self.’ Ironically in my country, ‘first’ has become synonymous to ‘last.’

It is also true that the span of our survival has abundance of patches of military rule. On
the contrary, the plight and performance of politicians had been so pathetic that military
rulers, chastised by civil governments had performed comparatively better and thus were
popular among the masses as well as the world community for reasons beyond national
spectrum. Our traditional ally, U.S. so embroiled in bloc politics during Cold War in post
World War-II scenario and there after in war on terror, embraced our dictators with
open arms. Field Marshal Ayub Khan, General Yahya Khan, General Zia-ul-Haq and
General Pervez Musharraf had been conspicuous in sequential power grab. While first three of the four dictators were afforded an excuse as if the responsibility to ‘dictate’ was imposed on them by the circumstances, the fourth dictator engineered an excuse for the power grab himself.

Our U.S-blue-eyed President (Musharraf) inflicted damage to the country beyond fancy. The U.S found his support for Afghanistan and Iraq expedient and in concert with their expansive agenda. On the home front, he ripped off the constitution, reduced the legislation instruments as meaningless by securing the most greedy and malicious politicians. He never hesitated to eliminate his opponents for personal reasons. He retired some Army officers arbitrarily, without giving them even a hint who reel in post retirement crises till today. The fascinating slogans, he raised after sacking his super ordinate, constitutional and people-mandated Prime Minister, Mr. Nawaz Sharif, in 1999 through a well orchestrated conspiracy, were soon flouted through and through when he declared himself as ‘President’ after a sham referendum. All government employees, federal as well as provincial were instructed to vote for him.

The evil of horse-trading, floor crossing, extra judicial killing, coercing and buying judiciary to sing to his tunes, selling state assets at throw away cost and then shoving mega scandals like sale of Pakistan Steel Mills under carpet, presiding over the cartelism of sugar cartels and engineering heavens for business magnate amidst the dripping misery of the masses are unpardonable crimes he committed to his own people. He holds the shameful distinction of once sacking the sitting Chief Justice of Pakistan and second time the whole of the Supreme Court of Pakistan including Chief Justice, making exception to those who took fresh oath to remain his loyal, only because the Chief Justice of Pakistan had opted to dispense justice, even if it hit Musharraf. While U.S. drew flak of hate from Pakistani masses, major share of it crystallized at middle and lower middle class level, the opinion as well as trend setter of any society who focused on U.S. patronizing of a dictator despite being the flag bearer of the democratic values of the Western societies. It was superb display of dichotomy between its acts and facts.

At the fall of the dictator through blizzard of masses frenzy, in came Mr. Asif Ali Zardari (AAZ) in the power arena in early 2008. Unfortunately, before he stepped in the Presidential Palace in Islamabad, he had already sowed extensive minefield himself, lethal enough to dismantle his least popular rule. Thanks to the ‘friendly opposition’ dominated by the second largest party called PML (N) and tolerant Army Chief who abstained from triggering his self-destructive devices. During two of his spouse’s (Benazir Bhutto) tenures as prime minister, if she faced formidable foes, AAZ was single handedly on top of the list to erode her credibility through his corruption. Soon he was named as Mr. Ten Percent because the deals he would conclude with ‘guests’ in Prime Minister’s house, he would extract his share from them. The corruption charges snow-balled to the extent that she was sacked twice, once by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, an honest bureaucrat and second time by her own party President, Farooq Ahmed Khan Laghari. Both wielded an axe the way Gen Zia-ul-Haq had crafted it to render his Prime Minister, Muhammad Khan Junejo toothless through notorious 8th Amendment of 1973 Constitution and later removing him in May, 1988.

Assassination of Benazir Bhutto on 27 December 2007, an elegant lady of grace, manners and integrity, in dubious way, afforded AAZ a chance, not only to become party co-chairman but also jumping to presidential slot, dumping old party stalwarts overnight. Ridden by the sense of guilt and crime when even the murder of his spouse is being whispered to have, by implication, traces leading to some top most collusion, he entrenched himself behind controversial Presidential immunity and notorious NRO (National Reconciliation Order), brokered with ex President Musharraf as quid pro quo. In ultimate analysis, it has proved that NRO was an instrument to divide the society in detail, creating a class that was virtually above any kind of accountability whatsoever. The mockery of justice consummated in 21st century by AAZ-Musharraf intrigues had neither any parallel nor any moral justification. It stunned the observers to see Mr. Richard Halbrook, shuttling to Pakistan to ensure unsuccessfully that these devices as well as dictators stay in place, more frequently than he perhaps visits his family. Even more odious sounding comes at the time when U.S. diplomats question Pakistani scholars and diplomats, why do you hate us? A big joke!

In a recent judgment, Supreme Court of Pakistan struck down the entire NRO apparatus. Since then AAZ is on collision course to find out loopholes and neutralize the judiciary that has risen to the occasion, perhaps for the first time since creation of Pakistan. People have come to believe that AAZ, emulating Musharraf, has become worst kind of a civilian dictator, an assumption unfortunate though but not without substance. In other words, he has left his soul at a certain rung against which Dr. Fritz Kraemer had advised, “ My fear regarding the inner corrosion of the very successful politician is not………but that he will leave part of his soul on every rung of the ladder leading him to the top.” His defiance to the highest court decisions is being viewed with concern that could generate a tsunami of events at great risk to the national integrity. Amidst these nifty gritty, selfish maneuvers, he flaunts Sind-card, assuming that people of Sind province he hails from, would support his survival despite his crimes. Fortunately the card has been tested before and is a fired case now. During Zia-ul-Haq regime, PPP, after ZA Bhutto was hanged, stimulated a movement under charming name of MRD (Movement for Restoration of Democracy) in early eighties but other than in a few rural areas of Sind, it could not pick up steam. The Sind-card of early eighties thus flopped and it has no potential to go by AAZ design because Sindhis (people belonging to Sind province) are more Pakistanis than any Pakistani.

Win by PML (N) National Assembly by-election candidate in Rawalpindi constituency from a political stalwart and a crony of General Pervez Musharraf on 24 Feb 2010 by vast margin is not a simple arithmetic. It must send shudder to PPP Government that its soft posturing on the deposed dictator and supporting a candidate that bore stigma of remaining long time in dictator’s kitchen-cabinet have been rejected by the people. Therefore, PML (N) was right to claim that it was a contest of popularity against ‘Ali Baba’ meaning (chief thief) Musharraf and “his forty lesser thieves/companions” that included the colluding leaders of PPP, covertly supporting Sheikh Rashid. The public has stamped the legitimacy of the values whether Government practiced it or not and hence rejected once most sought for Pakistani Nostradamus, Sheikh Rashid who had been tweeting under Musharraf’s wings.

What haunts the common man in Pakistan? It is ever increasing violence in urban areas, a deplorable sense of insecurity, sky-rocketing prices of essential commodities, absence of rule of law, total break down of functional capacity of the institutions (except judiciary and Armed Forces), rampant corruption, nepotism, stray youths, gang wars, cartelism, expanding mafias, alternating scarcity of sugar and flour, energy crisis with constant upward shooting price index, tax evasion by the rich and putting poor in the grind instead, corrupt federal and provincial ministers stashing money for next round of elections(as they openly remark, who knows we would be there tomorrow or not), monstrous traffic jams, unavoidable body and vehicle searches, persisting tussle between the provinces, flouting of court orders by persons as responsible as the President himself and his crony, Salman Taseer who has made mockery of judiciary and the federal symbol he represents as a governor. Yet more, the party corrupt officials take pride like their leaders who beat their chests emotionally and defiantly to claim, “hum nay jailain katee hain’, meaning, “we remained locked up in jails.” Every reasonable citizen knows that to be in jail is not an award winning exercise and gentlemen would loath to enter, let alone taking false pride in it. One is often struck by ominous parallel history has. Lenin to start with and finally Stalin after Lenin’s death had by design ‘Gulag-ized’ the majority of their people through out the country to ensure that even a slightly suspected resistance to the Bolshevik ideology was ruthlessly eliminated. Does People Party has the same agenda and aims turning the whole country in Stalin mode? When expanding monster called ‘hunger’ is gobbling up vast numbers, the country is becoming ripe for Bolshevik-like treatment whether incumbent government admits or not. One hopes, AAZ knows that Russian war casualties in Europe and Far East were in millions but barely one third of the people who perished in Soviets ‘Gulags’ and labor camps at Stalin’s behest. Can we afford a Stalin? Grasp of the answer is certainly well nigh.

The situation in Pakistan is worrisome but not hopeless if one knows the history of world class democracies that dominate the scene today. Britain monarchy gradually transformed itself to a democratic essence. Today it has the best part and that is, it has no written constitution. American democracy emerged through some historic events. Germany sprang twice in 20th Century; not from debris but smoldering ashes. Do we assume that Pakistan would need to fight and emerge from the debris/ashes of civil wars? Should we expect that Oliver Cromwell like leader would arrive to challenge opponents and instill a notion of propriety in their hearts? But when history tell us clearly the circumstances that led to such episodes, why not recover from irresponsibility and make use of past experience, prosperous nations of today learnt through hard trial of follies.

Recommendations
The price of liberty mandates that for the emergence of a peaceful and vibrant society, individual interests must be sacrificed. What would make the present climate recover, perhaps is simple to diagnose but would need bitter decisions by Pakistani nation. See that crises of any sort, proportionate to its intensity are to be given collective response at national level by the government, opposition, political parties large or small who act as watch dog and above all the civil society that must demand an unmatched efficiency from the government at each bend of crises. Without discussing the means that can have several modes and approaches, the ends that Pakistan must achieve:

 If ‘jihad’ is to be declared, take on corruption, drug trafficking, nepotism, mafias, hoarders, poverty and sectarianism to stem out these evils, that eat up the soul and stamina of any society.
 Restore rule of law and dispense justice at every level.
 Enforce a mechanism of accountability across the board, no matter how hard it hits big wigs.
 Establish and promote good practices through self example. Resign from the position of whatever status of the accused is, to allow law of the land take its course till allegations are proved right or wrong.
 The culprits who hold high portfolios should bring back billions of dollars stashed in foreign banks voluntarily.
 Respect judiciary and encourage it to pass non-partisan judgment. Appreciate its role even if an axe falls on ‘self’.
 Never malign the defense forces to cover own follies. Instead keep them in the best state of readiness to counter threats to our national and territorial integrity.
 Discard the politicians who have been involved in any kind of degrading act or crime. Bring new and honest faces to the highest institutions to make difference. Pakistani politicians, some exception apart, are more of opportunists than sticking to any code of ethics. Enforce political ethics in letter and spirit.
 Lastly bring back truly, as I referred earlier, the present crooked ‘last’ to straight ‘first’.

Dr. Makni has doctorate in IR, with focus on Eurasian Studies. Also a member of WSN International Advisory Board and an author of a book: The New Great Game: Oil and Gas Politics in Central Eurasia. dr.makni49@yahoo.com