Syrian President may survive for a while but World knows End Game written by: BrigGen (ret) Dr. Muhammad Aslam Khan Niazi, 16-Mar-12

"As peace hinges unpredictably in the wake of brewing Middle East nuclear tangle, al-Assad finds the legitimacy leash longer to persist in cleansing the ‘foreign bandits’. He has successfully exploited the prevailing conflict scenario in the region, the stand off among P5 on certain issues of politico-military implications globally and Iran, Israel and Arab world regionally. His balancing acts are fantastic and his capacity to persecute his own people is unprecedented in an era when bloodshed and repression would have been ordinarily evitable curses. However, Bashar al-Assad is adrift to the precipice, which is every despot’s destination. There is a long history of tyrants that were consumed by guilt gradually but consistently. Most of them behaved like neurotics and wished for death if it did not come because conscience would sting them incessantly." The Syrians are going through a unique trauma as the country's leadership is presiding over a massacre of its own people for the last year. It is not for the sake of rendering sacrifices to achieve any grand Napoleonic design but just because an authoritarian ruler is ruthlessly determined to perpetuate his rule. The protesting ‘opposition’ demonstrated peacefully to begin with. The Syrian regime opted to wield the hammer and kill the flies, its own people, instead. Bashar al-Assad employed elite troops and mechanised division to flush out ‘foreign mercenaries’ from the ‘opposition’ resistance pockets, Homs and others, in the restive districts. The intensity of disproportionate reprisal, to the verge of over-kill, mocked the huge reservoir of the majority’s patience that has lived under minority ‘Alawites’ yoke for over four decades. Perhaps driven by the wind of change that is gushing through Arabian Peninsula as well as North Africa, Syrians yearn for freedom from al-Assad’s repressive rule. Instead of respecting own peoples’ dream, they were showered upon with the barrages of deadly munitions that pierced through their mortal torsi. Homs has been depopulated when its 100,000 population was 'cleansed’ to a few thousands. They were either killed or made to flee. UN workers recently found to their horror that the town is inhabitable. The Syrian President is lucky as long as he can sustain himself. His survival prescription is simple but deadly. If tyranny does not work, more tyranny is the answer. He has rubbed the UN, Arab League, US and European Union’s protests on his toes. The ‘Alawites’ minority, desperately clings to al-Assad now because both have become a necessity to each other. He must have been proficient in calculus or circumstances have taught him to be so because he alienated the supportive minority in cunning ways to secure its unflinching loyalties, raising simultaneously the bogey of Islamists, even al-Qaeda, to snub some regional as well as extra-regional actors who stand aghast at the sight of almost blind alley they have come across. Perceptional dichotomy among UN Security Council (UNSC) permanent members has enabled el-Assad to turn R2P, ‘Responsibility to Protect’, doctrine redundant. In 2001, ‘International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty’ recommendations led to R2P, which emerged finally as UNSC Resolution 1674. It encumbers the international community to act and prevent if any state is unable or unwilling to prevent mass atrocity crimes. Lack of consensus among P5 suggests that Syrian narrative of conflict is not only intricate; it is packed with several other corollary scenarios, which have been graded as existential threats. the international community thus has limited options against al-Assad’s obduracy. Thanks to the Middle East, precarious geo-politics and some of al-Assad’s allies support for him that nourish and sharpen his lust for power-gamut without any apparent sense of remorse. His allies, shedding occasional sympathy-tears on his massive blood letting that goes on incessantly, are finding it expedient to nurture their own ‘national interests’. ‘End justifies the means’ becomes their final refuge to lull their erring conscience. In other words, geo-political manoeuvres focused at the Middle East are pivoted upon several thousand innocent Syrians who have been victimised one way or another. The expense is great for the humanity to mourn but for the actors, perpetuating or abetting the genocide, it is Syrian’s ‘internal issue’…a tragic deduction. To the contrary, al-Assad struggles to rubbish the universal demand to step down or ensure transition of power to the people in democratic traditions. As peace hinges unpredictably in the wake of brewing Middle East nuclear tangle, al-Assad finds the legitimacy leash longer to persist in cleansing the ‘foreign bandits’. He has successfully exploited the prevailing conflict scenario in the region, the stand off among P5 on certain issues of politico-military implications globally and Iran, Israel and Arab world regionally. His balancing acts are fantastic and his capacity to persecute his own people is unprecedented in an era when bloodshed and repression would have been ordinarily evitable curses. He has found an armour shield in the fault lines among the powers that run across the continents. Abundant scholarly brainstorming has gone in the Syrian conundrum but just one hypothesis emerges clear so far, i.e. the Syrian plight would exacerbate yet more before the evil gets off their back. Will it get off at all…is also an extremely complicated question? The world generally is saturated by the Western media assumptions which al-Assad and his allies brand as a blatant intruders in internal matters of a sovereign state. In the global setting, one may grant such an understandable power play while the realist theorists of states wishing to decapitate the Syrian regime, would be painting legitimacy of their posture. Western as well regional media is indeed a powerful tool to shape the conflict contours that is simmering within Syria. One would not reject the Syrian regime's claims out-rightly about the Western media perverting Syrian masses and the Russia Foreign Minister recently accusing the US to have manipulated UNSC over Libya and Syria, yet the Eastern hemisphere, China included, has not been able to bring forth a convincing logic that could afford el-Assad a cause to eliminate his own people. Certainly, visits by Russian and Iranian naval flotilla to Syrian ports were potent moves to let the world know how the allies are poised towards Syrian solidarity. Even then, the fault appears deeply embedded in the dynastic hold of the Syrian regime. The loss of mass support and desertions of Syrian soldiers including some senior brass in a country where democratic norms remain absent for decades, emerge as potent factors to disarm al-Assad of his dialectic of counter arguments. If he wants to recapture some grace, he could opt to lose like a defiant boxer who fought through all rounds but lost on points with narrow margin. Yemeni President calling ‘quits’ is a recent model, he could emulate. However, Bashar al-Assad is adrift to the precipice, which is every despot’s destination. He pretends, not registering the end-time of Moamer al-Gaddafi whom huge stashes of gold could not buy mercy when he desperately implored to be spared of the wrath of the revengeful mob. Similarly, he would loath to see the caged Egyptian tyrant when the government prosecutor demanded death penalty for him during the trial. Taking him further back in the history, Czar Paul-I would summarily execute his soldiers for a missing button on the uniform and boast about ‘ennobling’ them when the emperor spoke to them. Once his murderers approached him, the mighty Czar attempted to sneak into a chimney to ‘ennoble’ it but was pulled back and butchered. There is a long history of tyrants that were consumed by guilt gradually but consistently. Most of them behaved like neurotics and wished for death if it did not come because conscience would sting them incessantly. Bashar al-Assad’s expression-less face, despite mass murders, bears strong indicators that he is headed for the similar end game, which is the destiny of all despots. While he may persevere in his atrocious pursuits for a while, the world knows, what ultimately lies for him in the store---of course, an agonising death if he fails to see clear writing on the wall.

Gasping Democracy and our unrelenting Kleptomaniacs

written by: BrigGen (ret) Dr. Muhammad Aslam Khan Niazi, 29-Feb-12 "Pakistan is in grip of curses, imposed on it by the rulers. The way all PPP government blunders are dumped in a basket called ‘conspiracies’, it is a strange paradox that embezzlement cases surfacing in last over four years have links invariably to the President and PM’s advisors or their chosen fraudsters. The ‘melodrama’, every Pakistani is witnessing, for last couple of months, portrays a national tragedy of its kind. It is baffling to see as high an office as that of Prime Minister (PM) indulging in sinister manoeuvres, which strike at the roots of lustrous institutions like Judiciary and Pakistan Army. Yet the irony is that the PM who happens to be the constitutional Supreme Commander (SuCo) and his mentor, the President, he seeks guidance from, are under cyclic attacks of hallucination ever since the dawn of ‘Memo-gate’. The institutions that stand guard to establish writ of the government and protect the constitution are under cross-fire of Pakistan People Party’s (PPP) top guns, who also ‘cry wolf’ incessantly. However, more they gaffe and groan, more they sink in the quagmire of their own making. PPP chief whip, Dr (pseudo) Babar Awan appears in rhythm with him to reinforce malignant campaign as vociferously as he defends shamelessly his claim of being a PhD from US University that never existed. Judiciary, perhaps after withholding its months-long restraint, finally took notice of their blatant defiance and served them the ‘contempt of court’ notices. Not to mention their lesser lies but the Himalayan one, they tell from across the rostrum amidst flashing cameras to claim that ‘they have never defied Judiciary’, lamenting concurrently that conspiracies are being hatched against the ‘parliament’ and the ‘people mandate’ for PPP. Being the ruling party, they carry heavy baggage of suspected treason, misconduct, corruption and nepotism. The have resorted to adopting a flawed hypothesis that their confrontation with Judiciary and Army would win them people’s popularity for second lease of life in forthcoming general elections in 2013. Anyone keeping track of the events would sequentially list all unashamed government’s attempts to block the dispensation of justice despite the apex court’s clear directions for conduct of transparent proceedings. To save an ‘above-the-law’ scion of two political stalwarts, Shujaat and Pervez of PML (Q) from possible retribution in the wake of massive, more than proven fraud and embezzlement charges, PPP embraced these politicians to win their party support. Ditching the political morality and the public trust, invested in them could never deter them just because greed of power in their lexicon has precedence over all virtues. The deal inscribed a shameful chapter of history of the time when crimes against the accused were liquidated. Intelligentsia, if writhing in pain, is justified to express their anguish on sight of their shenanigans, bulldozing way through crippled lower court. Unfortunately, in the land of pure the politicians justify all wicked games under the label ‘politics’ because they have taken oath and thereafter prevails a dirty tradition here when often immoral, brazenly offensive acts stand condoned. Rather than serving the masses, ‘democracy’ has been turned into a safe haven for plundering the national wealth by its standard-bearers. What a trial when the state was in prosecution role and what a fantastically ‘honourable’ acquittal of the accused while PM who leads ‘supreme parliament’, claims to ‘respect and obey the Judiciary’. In fact, he rubbed on his toes the Supreme Court instructions for appointing honest officers for transparent investigation and seeing the charges through to the logical end. If no evidence comes up before the court and the prosecution witnesses turn hostile, Judiciary cannot act as vagabonds to hand down any punishment. That distinguishes virtues from the vices. The apex court verdict about NRO (National Reconciliation Order) in unambiguous terms was also trashed by the PPP. PM cronies openly defied and mocked Judiciary rather in poetic overtones. PM’s defence lawyer, pursuing ‘Contempt’ hearing made frightening revelation. He said there was no action left in NRO that was feasible to implement and PM thought it expedient, not to write letter to Swiss authorities to extricate public money stashed by the plunderers because his law team had given such recommendations. Mr. Aitzaz Hasan had no answer when the Bench reminded him about PM’s obligation of heeding to the court’s judgment and not to the law team’s summaries. As if NRO and successive corruption scandals, generally cracked by vigilant media every fortnight were not enough. In between landed another bombshell---‘Memo-gate’ purported to be the brainchild of Hussain Haqani (former Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington) and with the alleged connivance of PPP leadership. It shocked every Pakistani on the suspected chicanery of some top black sheep to plot against a sensitive institution that is fulfilling its obligations under challenging scenario in credible ways. What added to the masses fury even more was the unprecedented vitriolic reaction demonstrated by PM and his patron, not to mention their cronies. Resultant immensity of panic, which struck the PPP leadership, at least benchmarked the devastating potentials of the episode, meaning that ‘Memo-gate’ was not any ‘Hoax-gate’. PM and the patron invented some pernicious themes to blackmail Judiciary as well as Army. He went, regrettably, beyond limits to accuse the Army and Spy Chief of serious allegations. His lie could not sustain long and had to retract his accusations. To show some feather in the cap, he fired the Secretary Defence because he refused to tow his line and submitted his ‘affidavit’ to the Supreme Court on the court’s instructions. Even non-professional would understand that the Secretary was bound to endorse his version and not the pack of lies if he was dictated to by anyone else. This way, PM has bagged colossal angst of the entire Army that holds such officer like the Secretary Defence in great esteem because of his clean conduct for about four decades. The mode and manner, he was shown the door, could be condemned to any extent because he was humiliated for his principled stand. SuCo did it because he ‘respects all the institutions.’ PPP and PM’s aversion in recent years for the Army is least masqueraded. He travels hundreds of KM to offer condolences for a bureaucrat who died during a road accident, a justified gesture of generosity and care for the deceased’s family. Conversely, SuCo is not inclined to show military grace ever to render his symbolic shoulder-support for a few seconds to the funerals of several dozen soldiers who sacrificed their most precious asset, life, for the country at Salala Post on Afghan border. The sacrifices rendered by the martyrs are acknowledged whole-heartedly because when Army stands guard round the clock in treacherous terrain and at dizzy heights up to 21000 feet, 180 million people have peaceful and sound slumber. The beauty of the entire zealous dedication is that Army does it as a sacred duty that it owes to the fellow citizens. The country is in grip of curses, imposed on it by the rulers. The way all PPP government blunders are dumped in a basket called, ‘conspiracies’, it is a strange paradox that embezzlement cases surfacing in last over four years have links invariably to the President and PM’s advisors or their chosen fraudsters. A record flare for the less educated youth to rehabilitate him is also a golden feather in PPP’s hat when PM appointed a matriculate as Chairman OGDC and let the PhDs rot. OGDC is Oil and (natural) Gas Development Corporation that is corruption den for the corrupt. Yet PPP’s chief as well as minor whips rattle without blink because ‘they respect all institutions’. They may be right by a fraction as in their reckoning at least, ‘corruption’ has also become an institution in Pakistan, genuinely loved by them. PPP government has singular honour to preside over 8500 billion rupees ($8b) going down the ‘corruption’ drain during its rule since 2008. Thanks to recent Transparency International’s mind-boggling report. Only the black hole in the universe could suck in such a big amount. Implicitly, this party or some of its individuals have bigger corruption-holes than the black hole. That is how they leave democracy gasping for survival. In the mean time, monstrous ‘hunger’ is devouring the poor masses gradually but consistently. It is indeed a grave situation in Pakistan. One would extend appreciation for the sober and honest voices within them who are in minority. However, their silence, by squelching their conscience off, makes them party to their leaders’ abhorrent misdeeds to share equal if not greater responsibility. Best service to render is to the state and not to the corrupt individuals who tend to perpetrate tyranny. ‎ “All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent,” said Thomas Jefferson. Published in: IFIMES and world security network